Bear market rebound will be a wave of weaker than the text, Sina Financial opinion leader (WeChat public number kopleader) columnist Ren Zeping, this is the second wave of adjustment after completion of a repair market, do not go up and think again. The bear market will rebound wave after wave of weak, eventually fell out of a shrinking shrinkage. The rest. As for how to go after the two sessions, observe the exchange rate, monetary policy, reform, global markets and so on. The bear market will rebound wave after wave of weak   1, 1 4, we in the mainstream market discuss cross market years, suggesting that the risk of "recuperation". In February 15th, when the mainstream view of the world discussed the global market turmoil, we put forward the opportunity of "falling down is the opportunity to collect money", "second wave adjustment basically completed, the game of military, media and supply side reform and other structural opportunities."". 2, the recent market stabilization rebound is the repair of the excessive pessimistic expectations: the Fed’s interest rate hike in March is expected to ease the global market breathing, the RMB exchange rate stability, the huge amount of credit, steady growth policy warm air and the two sessions expected. In this wave of the repair market in the direction of the configuration in the pre growth stocks oversold (risk preference repair), NPC and CPPCC policy theme, yejiyuzeng, supply side reforms, crude oil production is expected. 3, look forward to the future, grasp the time window of the game between the two sessions (CPPCC March 3-13, NPC March 5-15) game. The policy is based on warm air, and will undoubtedly be a harmonious, United and victorious conference. Note before the two sessions on the supply side reform, steady growth, the RMB exchange rate, financial reform, supervision, registration and other important issues of public opinion preheat and discussion. 4, recently, with some QFII customers and foreign bank exchanges, we found that the global economy, China and the United States is the best, Europe, Japan, Latin America, Southeast Asia is not as good as ours? The most dynamic place in the world is in China and the United States, so the United States is the largest anchor currency, and China is the second largest anchor currency (mainly resource countries, manufacturing countries and other emerging economies). Looking at the global market, the risk of U.S. stocks may be greater than A shares, U.S. stocks just show the big head, A shares have fallen for 8 months, and some overseas customers began to increase interest in A shares. Bond market to say nothing of, China’s ten year treasury bond yield of 2.8%, with Japan, Europe, the United States still spreads, if the RMB exchange rate is stable, there is no devaluation loss, the attractiveness of overseas customers. 5, just, this is the second wave adjustment after completion of a repair market, do not go up and think again. The bear market will rebound wave after wave of weak, eventually fell out of a shrinking shrinkage. The rest. As for how to go after the two sessions, observe the exchange rate, monetary policy, reform, global markets and so on. We are not worried about the problems, such as economic recession, excess capacity, bad financial and so on. What we really worry about is the unsolvable problem, such as Deng Gong once said, "China should guard against the right, but mainly against the left."". Pay attention to the political economic conditions of reform and environmental progress. 6, the last pass positive energy: 1) 2015 June at 5000 o’clock, most people think that the Chinese nation will soon be a great rejuvenation, the success of reform is just around the corner. 熊市的反弹会一波比一波弱 　　文 新浪财经意见领袖(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 任泽平 　　这是第二波调整完成后的一次修复行情，别涨着涨着又想多了。熊市的反弹会一波比一波弱，最终缩量缩出一个大跌。全年休养生息。至于两会后怎么走，观察汇率、货币政策、改革、全球市场等。 熊市的反弹会一波比一波弱   　　1、我们在1月4日市场主流观点讨论跨年行情时，提示风险“休养生息”。2月15日当市场主流观点讨论全球市场动荡时，提出“再跌就是捡钱机会”“第二波调整基本完成，博弈军工、传媒和供给侧改革等结构性机会”。 　　2、近期市场企稳反弹是对前期过度悲观预期的修复：美联储3月加息预期缓解全球市场喘息、人民币汇率暂稳、信贷放巨量、稳增长政策暖风以及两会预期。 　　在这波修复行情中，配置的方向在前期超跌的成长股(风险偏好修复)、两会政策主题、业绩预增、供给侧改革、原油减产预期等。 　　3、展望未来，把握两会前后(政协3月3-13日、人大3月5-15日)博弈的时间窗口。政策以暖风为主，毫无疑问，又将是一次和谐、团结、胜利的大会。留意两会前对供给侧改革、稳增长、人民币汇率、金融改革监管、注册制等重要议题的舆论预热和讨论。 　　4、最近与一些QFII客户和外资行交流，大家发现放眼全球经济，中美是最好的，欧洲、日本、拉美、东南亚还不如我们？世界上最具活力的地方就在中国美国，所以美国是第一大锚货币，中国是第二大锚货币(主要是资源国、制造业国家等新兴经济体)。放眼全球市场，美股的风险可能比A股还大，美股刚露出大头部，A股已经跌了8个月了，有些海外客户对A股的兴趣开始增加。债市更不用说了，中国十年期国债收益率2.8%，跟日本、欧洲、美国仍存在利差，如果人民币汇率暂稳，不存在贬值损失，对海外客户存在吸引力。 　　5、只是，这是第二波调整完成后的一次修复行情，别涨着涨着又想多了。熊市的反弹会一波比一波弱，最终缩量缩出一个大跌。全年休养生息。至于两会后怎么走，观察汇率、货币政策、改革、全球市场等。我们对有解的问题不担心，比如经济衰退、产能过剩、金融不良等，我们真正担心的是无解的问题，比如邓公曾讲过的“中国要防右，但主要是防左”。留意改革的政治经济学条件环境进展情况。 　　6、最后传递正能量： 　　1)2015年6月份5000点时，大部分人认为中华民族即将伟大复兴，改革成功指日可待待。2016年1月份市场跌去一半，主流情绪又极度悲观，甚至认为中国经济即将崩盘。屈指算来，也只是8个月过去了，中国经济发生了什么重大变化了吗？中国不缺钱(流动性)，缺信心，前期市场调整主要原因可能不是无风险利率、流动性等，主要问题出在改革预期驱动的风险偏好花开花落。可能6月份预期走得太快太超前了，现在可能又走到了另一个极端。 　　2)A股大部分风险已经得到释放，风险是涨出来的，机会是跌出来的，作为专业投资者，应该“越跌越乐观，越涨越悲观”。 　　7、放弃对美国的幻想，国际关系至今仍是丛林。我们可以选择战场，但不能选择阵营。 　　中国民族是一个伟大的民族，外部霸权是内部实力的延伸，中国正在展开的改革将奠定未来30年内圣外王的霸权基础，未来政策目标应以务实的解决内部问题为主。中国的崛起，将改写世界治理体系，时隔五百年重新夺回龙座，以儒表法里道统为核心的中华文明将给全人类带来福音。 　　(本文作者介绍：国泰君安证券研究所董事总经理、首席宏观分析师，中国金融40人论坛特邀研究员、中国新供给50人论坛成员、中国人民大学兼职研究员等。曾担任国务院发展研究中心宏观部研究室副主任。) 　　本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用，请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章：

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