Guangzhou Futures coal rose weakened or fell vertically

Guangzhou: coal futures rose to weaken or in case of vertical fall since the beginning of this year, the domestic supply side reforms to promote a strong, coal enterprises to limit production, and environmental protection policies lead to high pressure, limiting the production cuts continuous supply fell sharply. On the other hand, the rapid rise in real estate prices, the bubble continues to expand. New construction, sales and investment data increased to stimulate demand for steel companies. Coal industry chain inventory level is in a low position in history. Lead to domestic coal spot and futures prices continued to rise. From September to October, iron and steel, the main coal producing areas of environmental protection policy for more intensive production, inventory at historic lows in the black commodities, supply and demand caused by the mismatch caused by skyrocketing prices. However, we believe that coal prices continue to rise in short-term power has been greatly weakened, the market is now in September or vertical decline. On the one hand, coal prices led to the rapid rise in supply side reforms have reached the limit of short-term profit; on the other hand, the coke material demand in the real estate bubble continued fermentation caused by steel prices began to doubt, in the real estate regulation under high pressure on steel demand will be reduced, and the coal prices rose sharply, steel profits being eaten, the profit rate decline, will take the initiative to reduce the start, short-term market downside risk gradually exposed. A fundamental analysis 1, the supply side reforms or slowing in recent coal output growth picked up in the supply side reforms in 1-8 months, the national coal production of 2 billion 178 million 870 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 247 million 490 thousand tons, down 10.2%. 1-8 month raw coal production compared with the beginning of Mysteel released the report to the production capacity of the predicted value of 1.57 tons. Among them, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi provinces of the country’s largest contribution to the decline in coal production. 1-8 months, the total output of raw coal in three provinces decreased by 171 million 30 thousand tons, the contribution rate of the national coal production fell by up to 69.1%. Figure 1-1 raw coal output   data sources: wind data supply side of the reform progress than expected, in the case of a sharp rise in prices, the reform process or slow down in the short term. 1-6 in 2016, according to the Ministry Deputy Minister Feng Fei, the first half of the elimination of iron and steel production capacity of 13 million tons, the annual task of 30%; 1-7 month, according to the NDRC director Xu Shaoshi introduced the first 7 months of the elimination of iron and steel production capacity of 21 million tons, the annual task of 47%; according to the September 30, 2016 Chinese metallurgical news "this year to defuse steel overcapacity the target has completed 77%" iron and Steel Industry Association, China gujianguo said that as of the end of August, to resolve the excess steel production capacity has to complete the objectives and tasks of this year was 77%. Annual target task is expected to be completed, or even over. July 2016 and August, respectively, to complete the annual task of 17% and 30%, a substantial increase in the process, the completion of the task in 2016 is expected to exceed the expected rate. At present, 76 national key coal enterprises for collective production, the report has been submitted to the Bureau of energy, 276 days adjusted back to the original 330 days limit production. And, during the period of 8-9, North China alone.相关的主题文章: